Market Access and Forecasting
Our interdisciplinary team of industry experts is adept at leveraging epidemiological data and market insights, including KOL input from both payers and clinicians, to develop comprehensive revenue and patient forecasts for the launches of new therapeutics across various indications and/or global markets. Recent projects include forecasting the potential uptake of gene therapy for a neurodegenerative disease across the US and EU5 markets (click here for Whitepaper on gene therapy forecasting methodology).
Case Study
Situation: A client was developing a potentially curative gene therapy for a rare neurodegenerative disease and wanted to understand the potential uptake and post-launch revenue forecast for US and EU5 countries.
Approach: A comprehensive literature review was conducted to understand the epidemiology and natural history of the disease; this information was then used to generate survival curves and diagnosed prevalence estimates by divided by subtype.
To understand the potential uptake of the therapeutic, interviews with key stakeholder KOLs (e.g., payers and physicians), were conducted. Interviews gauged physician interest in drug, willingness to prescribe, and other factors influencing potential payer coverage (e.g., on-market competitors and cost-benefit assessment). Uptake curves of analog drugs in other orphan indications were analyzed to further understand the speed of uptake.
Outcome: Client market access team was able to use insight to understand the total global patient pool available, anticipated speed of uptake, and optimal target price to maximize revenue.
Approach: A comprehensive literature review was conducted to understand the epidemiology and natural history of the disease; this information was then used to generate survival curves and diagnosed prevalence estimates by divided by subtype.
To understand the potential uptake of the therapeutic, interviews with key stakeholder KOLs (e.g., payers and physicians), were conducted. Interviews gauged physician interest in drug, willingness to prescribe, and other factors influencing potential payer coverage (e.g., on-market competitors and cost-benefit assessment). Uptake curves of analog drugs in other orphan indications were analyzed to further understand the speed of uptake.
Outcome: Client market access team was able to use insight to understand the total global patient pool available, anticipated speed of uptake, and optimal target price to maximize revenue.